Friday night gives us two games I'm excited about, and I see them playing out very differently. I think Houston has a chance to take control in Boulder, while UCLA may have to fight to keep its perfect season going at the Rose Bowl.
Here's how I see both, what I'm watching, and where the numbers sit right now.
Houston at Colorado: Cougars make a statement
7:15 PM PT / 10:15 PM ET · Folsom Field, Boulder · ESPN
Houston comes into Boulder at 7-2, while Colorado is looking to turn around a difficult 3-6 season. Records don't tell the whole story, but when I look at this matchup, I see Houston as the stronger team across the board.
Start with the quarterback. Conner Weigman has 22 touchdown passes and only two interceptions this season, and he can hurt you with his legs too. He went 17-of-24 for 227 yards and two scores, and ran one in, in last week's 31-24 win over Cincinnati. Re'Shaun Sanford II broke that game open with a 51-yard touchdown run late. Houston runs for over 200 yards a game, so this isn't a one-trick offense.
Colorado's defense is solid against the run but has struggled against good passing teams. That's a bad matchup when Weigman is throwing to Amare Thomas and Patrick Overmyer. On the other side, Isaac Wilson has eight touchdowns and eight interceptions, and Colorado hasn't scored more than 27 against an FBS opponent this year.
The knock on Houston: to be fair, the Cougars have been a shaky bet as favorites, and the defense has given up some long drives lately. Plenty of bettors have taken the points with Colorado this week. I get it. I just think the gap in talent shows up in the second half.
The number: Houston -7.5 at most books (a couple are at -8.5), total 52. This line opened around Houston -10.5 and has been bet down.
Colorado will have the home crowd behind it, but I don't think that will be enough. My feeling is that Houston separates itself and leaves Boulder with a convincing win.
G's call: Houston wins by 20 or more.
Illinois at No. 4 UCLA: Bruins win, but Illinois keeps it close
6:00 PM PT / 9:00 PM ET · Rose Bowl, Pasadena · FOX
UCLA has been one of the stories of the college football season. The Bruins enter this one 9-0, and quarterback Ty Dieffenbach has been a big part of the ride. He's coming off a 303-yard, three-touchdown performance against Minnesota and will look to keep it going against a 6-3 Illinois team.
A little local love here, too: Dieffenbach is an Agoura High School product. Shout-out to Dustin Croick!
Think about how wild that Minnesota game was. He did it on just eight completions, including two 75-yard touchdowns to Aidan Mizell in the fourth quarter, and it got him Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week. This is a guy who started the year third on the depth chart.
But Dieffenbach isn't asked to carry this team. UCLA leads the Big Ten in rushing at 213 yards a game, with Wayne Knight and Anthony Woods doing the heavy lifting. And the defense leads the country with 27 takeaways. Opponent mistakes are how this team gets rolling.
That's exactly why I don't think Illinois goes quietly. The Illini have won four straight, including Oregon, and they're tied for 11th nationally in fewest turnovers with just six all year. Katin Houser is back from hand surgery and threw for 292 yards and three scores against Nebraska, with Collin Dixon catching two of them. If Illinois takes care of the ball, it takes away UCLA's best weapon.
What I'm watching: turnovers and the weather. There's rain in the forecast in Pasadena tonight, and a wet ball usually means fewer big plays and a tighter game. That's good news for the team getting points.
The number: UCLA -10.5, total 48.5. The spread has ticked up about a point this week, and most of the public money is on the Bruins.
I like UCLA to keep its perfect season alive at home, but I don't expect Illinois to make it easy. I'm looking for a competitive game that stays close into the fourth quarter.
G's call: UCLA wins a close one, but Illinois covers.
What the market is saying
The betting market and I agree on the winners, but not on the margins. Houston has come down about three points since the open, which tells you a lot of people expect Colorado to hang around. I'm going the other way. UCLA has gone up a point, with the public piling on a team that's covered every week this year. I respect that run, but in the rain against a team that doesn't turn it over, I'll take Illinois and the points.
Check the number before you bet
Check the current spread before placing a bet. The number matters, and lines can move. A half point on either of these games could be the difference between a win and a loss.
Lines as of 3:08 PM PT, Fri Nov 13, 2026, via The Odds API (consensus of 9 US books); lines move.
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